Tories could face wipeout in Norfolk, according to new poll
The Tories could be facing a total wipeout in Norfolk at next month’s election, with no MPs elected to Westminster for the first time in the party’s history, according to a new poll.
The survey, by polling firm Survation, indicates a political revolution is under way in a region that has long been considered ‘true blue’.
It predicts that Norfolk and Waveney will return a total of eight Labour MPs, two from Reform UK and one Liberal Democrat.
Among the defeated Tories could be former prime minister Liz Truss in South West Norfolk, and ex-science minister George Freeman in Mid Norfolk, with the poll predicting they will see their respective majorities of 26,195 and 22,594 overturned.
Both constituencies have returned Tories for generations and the result, if it comes to pass, would be the first time since the Conservative Party was formed after the Great Reform Act of 1832 that it has not had a single MP in the county.
Survation’s survey is based on so-called MRP analysis – a modern modelling technique which combines very large polls with other sources of information, such as census data and local level of support for parties.
The poll will make devastating reading for the Conservatives, who have struggled to close the gap in national polls since Rishi Sunak called the election.
Last month’s election for Norfolk’s police and crime commissioner gave an early clue as to their possible fortunes after Labour topped its first countywide poll in generations, with Sarah Taylor defeating Tory candidate Giles Orpen-Smellie.
The Survation survey predicts victories for Reform UK in Great Yarmouth, where Rupert Lowe is standing for the party, and North West Norfolk, for Phil Walton.
It suggests the Liberal Democrat Steffan Aquarone will take North Norfolk from Tory incumbent Duncan Baker.
However, the survey suggests the result will be extremely close in several Norfolk and Waveney seats, giving Conservatives hope that they may yet improve their fortunes.
